Cohort studycited by the Tayebat archiveabstract only checked A-SOD-10 standard review
Sugary drinks, weight and diabetes in 91,000 women
Sugar-sweetened beverages, weight gain, and incidence of type 2 diabetes in young and middle-aged women.
Overview
Schulze MB et al.. JAMA 2004 · PMID 15328324 · DOI 10.1001/jama.292.8.927
Women drinking one or more sugary drinks daily had 83% higher diabetes risk; fruit punch similar.
Does the study support the specific claim? Yes · Methodological quality: high
Plain-language summary
Study explained simply
- What did the researchers want to find out?
Are SSB associated with weight change and T2D in women?
- How was the study done?
Prospective cohort (NHS II) 1991-1999.
- How many people, animals or samples were studied?
91,249 (diabetes); 51,603 (weight); 741 T2D cases; Women aged young/middle-aged
- What was actually found?
Increasing SSB to >=1/day: 4.69 and 4.20 kg weight gain over 4 years vs 1.34 and 0.15 kg in decreasers; >=1 SSB/day T2D RR 1.83 (1.42-2.36); fruit punch RR 2.00 (1.33-3.03).
- How large was the observed effect?
RR 1.83 (1.42-2.36)
- What do the results mean in everyday life?
Sugary drinks, including fruit punch, are linked with weight gain and diabetes.
- What are the study's limitations?
Observational design; residual confounding possible; Self-reported dietary intake
- What does it say about Elawady's specific claim?
- Do the results apply to Germany and Europe?
High.
- What can explicitly not be concluded from this study?
Causation.
Scientific in-depth review
1. Full reference
- Authors
- Schulze MB, Manson JE, Ludwig DS, Colditz GA, Stampfer MJ, Willett WC, Hu FB
- Journal
- JAMA
- Year
- 2004
- Identifier
- PMID 15328324 DOI 10.1001/jama.292.8.927
- Verification
- verified – PubMed E-utilities efetch, 2026-10-25
- Retracted
- no
- Corrections
- none
- Extent checked
- abstract only
- Conflicts of interest and funding
No COI statement; NCI grant
2. Research question
Are SSB associated with weight change and T2D in women?
3. Study design and population
- Study design
- Cohort study – Prospective cohort (NHS II) 1991-1999.
- Population
Women aged young/middle-aged
- Country
USA
- Period
1991-1999
- Sample size
91,249 (diabetes); 51,603 (weight); 741 T2D cases
- Inclusion and exclusion criteria
Free of diabetes and major chronic disease
4. Methods and endpoints
- Exposure / intervention
SSB and fruit punch; change in intake
- Comparator
<1/month; stable/decreased intake
- Endpoints
Weight gain; incident T2D
- Statistical methods
Multivariate models
5. Actual results
- Results
Increasing SSB to >=1/day: 4.69 and 4.20 kg weight gain over 4 years vs 1.34 and 0.15 kg in decreasers; >=1 SSB/day T2D RR 1.83 (1.42-2.36); fruit punch RR 2.00 (1.33-3.03).
- Absolute risks
741 cases in 716,300 person-years
- Authors' conclusion
Higher SSB consumption associated with greater weight gain and increased T2D risk in women.
6. Strengths
- Large prospective cohort
- Change analysis
7. Weaknesses
- Observational design; residual confounding possible
- Self-reported dietary intake
8. Risk of bias
- Orienting tool
- ROBINS-E
- Type of assessment
- simplified assessment (abstract only)
- Full formal assessment
- no
- Overall risk of bias
- some concerns
- Rationale
Confounding possible.
9. Assessment of the statistical interpretation
Strong relative association.
10. Relevance to the specific claim
11. Independent contrary findings
None.
12. Transferability to Germany and Europe
High.
13. Overall methodological judgement
Strong cohort evidence; included in meta-analyses.
| Multidimensional assessment | |
|---|---|
| Authenticity of the source | verified |
| Methodological quality | high |
| Risk of bias | some concerns |
| Precision of results | high |
| Directness | direct |
| Reproducibility | replicated |
| Consistency with the overall evidence | consistent |
| Regional transferability | high |
| Adequacy of the interpretation (by the archive) | not applicable |
14. Open questions
None specific.
15. Linked fact checks
- Regular consumption of sugar-sweetened soft drinks increases the risk of type 2 diabetes (and metabolic syndrome); one to two cans per day raise type 2 diabetes risk by about 26%, and each daily serving by about 18%. – Studies supporting the claim
- Sugar-sweetened soft drinks deliver liquid calories that do not satisfy hunger and therefore promote weight gain in children and adults. – Studies supporting the claim
Use by the Tayebat archive
Note: according to the archive, the studies were compiled by the archive operators. Whether Dr. Elawady himself cited this study is not established.
- What the archive says about the study
Listed in the archive bibliography only (no archive interpretation card).
- A. What was actually studied?
SSB, weight and T2D.
- B. What did the authors find?
As above.
- C. What conclusions do the authors themselves draw?
As above.
- D. What does the archive derive from it?
Supports weight and diabetes statements.
- E. Is this derivation scientifically justified?
Consistent.
- Adequacy of the interpretation (by the archive)
- not applicable