Meta-analysiscited by the Tayebat archiveabstract only checked A-UPF-14 standard review
Ultra-processed food and health: meta-analysis
Consumption of ultra-processed foods and health status: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Overview
Pagliai G et al.. Br J Nutr 2021 · PMID 32792031 · DOI 10.1017/S0007114520002688
Highest consumers had 25% higher death risk and 29% higher CVD risk in cohorts.
Does the study support the specific claim? Yes · Methodological quality: moderate
Plain-language summary
Study explained simply
- What did the researchers want to find out?
Is UPF associated with health status?
- How was the study done?
Systematic review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional and cohort studies.
- How many people, animals or samples were studied?
23 studies (10 cross-sectional, 13 cohorts; 183,491 in cohorts); Adults
- What was actually found?
Cohorts: all-cause mortality RR 1.25 (1.14-1.37); CVD 1.29 (1.12-1.48); cerebrovascular 1.34 (1.07-1.68); depression 1.20 (1.03-1.40). Cross-sectional: overweight/obesity +39%, low HDL +102%, metabolic syndrome +79%.
- How large was the observed effect?
RR 1.25 mortality
- What do the results mean in everyday life?
Association.
- What are the study's limitations?
Few studies per outcome
- What does it say about Elawady's specific claim?
- Do the results apply to Germany and Europe?
High.
- What can explicitly not be concluded from this study?
Causation.
Scientific in-depth review
1. Full reference
- Authors
- Pagliai G, Dinu M, Madarena MP, Bonaccio M, Iacoviello L, Sofi F
- Journal
- Br J Nutr
- Year
- 2021
- Identifier
- PMID 32792031 DOI 10.1017/S0007114520002688 · PMC7844609
- Verification
- verified – PubMed E-utilities efetch, 2026-10-25
- Retracted
- no
- Corrections
- none
- Extent checked
- abstract only
- Conflicts of interest and funding
No COI statement
2. Research question
Is UPF associated with health status?
3. Study design and population
- Study design
- Meta-analysis – Systematic review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional and cohort studies.
- Population
Adults
- Country
Multinational
- Period
not stated in abstract
- Sample size
23 studies (10 cross-sectional, 13 cohorts; 183,491 in cohorts)
- Inclusion and exclusion criteria
Cross-sectional and prospective cohorts
4. Methods and endpoints
- Exposure / intervention
Highest UPF
- Comparator
Lowest UPF
- Endpoints
Obesity, metabolic syndrome, CVD, depression, mortality
- Statistical methods
Pooled RR/OR
5. Actual results
- Results
Cohorts: all-cause mortality RR 1.25 (1.14-1.37); CVD 1.29 (1.12-1.48); cerebrovascular 1.34 (1.07-1.68); depression 1.20 (1.03-1.40). Cross-sectional: overweight/obesity +39%, low HDL +102%, metabolic syndrome +79%.
- Absolute risks
not reported
- Authors' conclusion
Increased UPF associated with worse cardiometabolic profile and higher CVD, depression and mortality risk (limited studies).
6. Strengths
- Systematic
7. Weaknesses
- Few studies per outcome
8. Risk of bias
- Orienting tool
- AMSTAR 2
- Type of assessment
- simplified assessment (abstract only)
- Full formal assessment
- no
- Overall risk of bias
- some concerns
- Rationale
Limited studies.
9. Assessment of the statistical interpretation
Moderate pooled RRs.
10. Relevance to the specific claim
Supports C-UPF-03; mixed for C-UPF-04.
11. Independent contrary findings
None.
12. Transferability to Germany and Europe
High.
13. Overall methodological judgement
Supportive; overlaps with A-UPF-13.
| Multidimensional assessment | |
|---|---|
| Authenticity of the source | verified |
| Methodological quality | moderate |
| Risk of bias | some concerns |
| Precision of results | moderate |
| Directness | direct |
| Reproducibility | replicated |
| Consistency with the overall evidence | consistent |
| Regional transferability | high |
| Adequacy of the interpretation (by the archive) | not applicable |
14. Open questions
None.
15. Linked fact checks
- Ultra-processed foods raise the risk of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, cancer and all-cause mortality; an umbrella review found 'convincing' evidence for cardiovascular mortality and type 2 diabetes. – Studies supporting the claim
- Ultra-processed foods increase the risk of depression and common mental disorders. – Studies with mixed or unclear results
Use by the Tayebat archive
Note: according to the archive, the studies were compiled by the archive operators. Whether Dr. Elawady himself cited this study is not established.
- What the archive says about the study
Listed in the archive bibliography only (no archive interpretation card).
- A. What was actually studied?
UPF and health.
- B. What did the authors find?
As above.
- C. What conclusions do the authors themselves draw?
As above.
- D. What does the archive derive from it?
Supports general claims.
- E. Is this derivation scientifically justified?
Consistent.
- Adequacy of the interpretation (by the archive)
- not applicable