Risk assessmentindependent cross-checkabstract only checked I-ABX-02 standard review
Antibiotic resistance in the Eastern Mediterranean
The burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region 1990-2021: a cross-country systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050.
Overview
EMR Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators. Lancet Public Health 2025 · PMID 41082884 · DOI 10.1016/S2468-2667(25)00201-4
About 92,800 deaths in the region were attributed to resistance in 2021.
Does the study support the specific claim? Yes · Methodological quality: high
Plain-language summary
Study explained simply
- What did the researchers want to find out?
Regional AMR burden.
- How was the study done?
Modelling.
- How many people, animals or samples were studied?
EMR.
- What was actually found?
92,800 attributable deaths.
- What do the results mean in everyday life?
Relevant to Egypt.
- What are the study's limitations?
Model.
- What does it say about Elawady's specific claim?
Supports.
- Do the results apply to Germany and Europe?
Low.
- What can explicitly not be concluded from this study?
Egypt-level numbers.
Scientific in-depth review
1. Full reference
- Authors
- EMR Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators
- Journal
- Lancet Public Health
- Year
- 2025
- Identifier
- PMID 41082884 DOI 10.1016/S2468-2667(25)00201-4
- Verification
- verified – PubMed efetch 2026-10-25
- Retracted
- no
- Corrections
- none
- Extent checked
- abstract only
- Conflicts of interest and funding
Declaration of interests Saira Afzal reports support for their participation in the current manuscript from the Institute of Public Health Lahore; grants or contracts from the Institute of Public Health Lahore; honoraria for experts, lectures, visiting speakers, and educational seminars, provided by the Dean Institute of Public Health Lahore; support for attending meetings and travel from the Dean Institute of Public Health, Lahore Pakistan; participation on a data safety monitoring board or advisory board for the Pakistan National Bioethics Committee, institutional review board membership for
2. Research question
AMR burden in the EMR (includes Egypt)
3. Study design and population
- Study design
- Risk assessment – GBD regional analysis for WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region
- Population
EMR countries
- Country
WHO EMR
- Period
1990-2021; forecast 2050
4. Methods and endpoints
- Endpoints
Deaths
- Statistical methods
Modelling
5. Actual results
- Results
2021: 380,000 associated and 92,800 attributable deaths; 2050 forecast 187,000 attributable and 752,000 associated; MRSA leading in most countries.
- Absolute risks
not reported
- Authors' conclusion
Need for stronger regional leadership.
6. Strengths
- Regional detail
7. Weaknesses
- Model-based
8. Risk of bias
- Orienting tool
- none applicable
- Type of assessment
- simplified assessment (abstract only)
- Full formal assessment
- no
- Overall risk of bias
- some concerns
9. Assessment of the statistical interpretation
10. Relevance to the specific claim
C-ABX-02, C-ABX-12 (Egypt context).
11. Independent contrary findings
12. Transferability to Germany and Europe
Low (EMR).
13. Overall methodological judgement
Regional context.
| Multidimensional assessment | |
|---|---|
| Authenticity of the source | verified |
| Methodological quality | high |
| Risk of bias | some concerns |
| Precision of results | moderate |
| Directness | direct |
| Reproducibility | unknown |
| Consistency with the overall evidence | consistent |
| Regional transferability | low |
| Adequacy of the interpretation (by the archive) | not applicable |
14. Open questions
Egypt-specific figures (not read).