Measurement / residue studyindependent cross-checkabstract checked I-SRC-133 standard review
How much flu Egypt has each season
The National Burden of Influenza-Associated Respiratory Illness Across Levels of Severity in Egypt, 2016-2019.
Overview
Fahim M et al.. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2024 · PMID 39722214 · DOI 10.1111/irv.70061
Egypt has an estimated 16 million mild flu illnesses and thousands of flu deaths per season.
Does the study support the specific claim? No · Methodological quality: moderate
Plain-language summary
Study explained simply
- What did the researchers want to find out?
Estimate influenza burden in Egypt
- How was the study done?
Surveillance-based modelling
- How many people, animals or samples were studied?
8 sentinel hospitals, national extrapolation
- What was actually found?
Large burden, worst in elderly and small children
- How large was the observed effect?
About 16 million illnesses; 2660 deaths per season (wide CIs)
- What do the results mean in everyday life?
Flu is widespread every year
- What are the study's limitations?
Uncertain estimates
- What does it say about Elawady's specific claim?
Contradicts preventing flu in three weeks
- Do the results apply to Germany and Europe?
Indirect
- What can explicitly not be concluded from this study?
Effect of any diet on flu
Scientific in-depth review
1. Full reference
- Authors
- Fahim M et al.
- Journal
- Influenza Other Respir Viruses
- Year
- 2024
- Identifier
- PMID 39722214 DOI 10.1111/irv.70061
- Verification
- verified – PubMed efetch 2026-10-26; Crossref works record checked
- Retracted
- no
- Corrections
- none
- Extent checked
- abstract only
- Conflicts of interest and funding
Funded by WHO; authors declare no conflicts.
2. Research question
What is the national burden of influenza-associated illness in Egypt?
3. Study design and population
- Study design
- Measurement / residue study – Burden-of-disease estimate from sentinel surveillance (WHO methods)
- Population
Egyptian population; SARI patients at 8 sentinel hospitals
- Country
Egypt
- Period
2016-2019
- Sample size
National extrapolation from sentinel hospitals
- Inclusion and exclusion criteria
Severe acute respiratory infection surveillance
4. Methods and endpoints
- Exposure / intervention
Laboratory-confirmed influenza
- Comparator
Not applicable
- Endpoints
Mild/moderate illness, hospitalisation, deaths per season
- Statistical methods
WHO burden pyramid; 95% CI
5. Actual results
- Results
Mean seasonal estimates: 16,425,938 mild/moderate illnesses (95% CI 1,150,888-40,409,614); 30,335 non-critical and 9110 critical hospitalisations; 2660 deaths (95% CI 154-9908). Highest severe burden in people over 65 and children under 5.
- Absolute risks
Death rate in people over 65: 56.0 per 100,000 (0.6-111.0).
- Authors' conclusion
High burden of severe influenza in older adults and young children in Egypt; increased vaccine uptake is warranted.
6. Strengths
- Egypt-specific
- WHO standard methods
7. Weaknesses
- Very wide CIs
- Extrapolation from two governorates
8. Risk of bias
- Orienting tool
- none applicable
- Type of assessment
- simplified assessment (abstract only)
- Full formal assessment
- no
- Overall risk of bias
- some concerns
- Rationale
Modelled estimates with large uncertainty.
9. Assessment of the statistical interpretation
Extremely wide CIs; order of magnitude (millions of cases each season) is the robust message.
10. Relevance to the specific claim
Shows that seasonal influenza in Egypt is a recurrent, widespread viral infection (millions of illnesses per season), which cannot plausibly be abolished in three weeks by diet.
11. Independent contrary findings
None.
12. Transferability to Germany and Europe
Egypt-specific; similar seasonal patterns elsewhere.
13. Overall methodological judgement
Useful Egyptian context.
| Multidimensional assessment | |
|---|---|
| Authenticity of the source | verified |
| Methodological quality | moderate |
| Risk of bias | some concerns |
| Precision of results | low |
| Directness | indirect |
| Reproducibility | unknown |
| Consistency with the overall evidence | consistent |
| Regional transferability | high |
| Adequacy of the interpretation (by the archive) | not applicable |
14. Open questions
Precise burden estimates.
15. Linked fact checks
- He could stop kidney failure and dialysis in all of Egypt within two months and prevent seasonal influenza within three weeks. – Studies contradicting or limiting the claim