The diabetes remission achieved by bariatric surgery erodes over time (SOS: 72% at 2 years to 30.4% at 15 years; Adams: 75% to 51%).
Original statement
أما هدوء السكري الذي تُرفع رايته، فيتآكل: في SOS انخفض من 72% بعد سنتين إلى 30% فقط بعد 15 سنة، وفي متابعة Adams لـ 12 سنة من 75% إلى 51%.
verbatim according to source. Translation by the project; the Arabic wording is authoritative.
Translation
The diabetes remission achieved by bariatric surgery erodes over time (SOS: 72% at 2 years to 30.4% at 15 years; Adams: 75% to 51%).
Origin
- Source status
- Archive editors
- Attribution
- Archive editors (eltayebat.com); not necessarily Elawady's own words
- Origin
- https://eltayebat.com/rule/bariatric-surgery/
- Attribution uncertainty
- Editorial summary/narrative and study selection written by the archive operators; the archive states that the cited research documents harm independently of Dr. Diaa's words.
- Claimed mechanism
Not specified.
- Claimed health effect
Diabetes relapse.
- Population concerned
People with type 2 diabetes and obesity
- Geographic restriction by Elawady
not applicable
Scientific assessment
Mostly true – Correct at its core, but with limitations or minor inaccuracies.
Certainty of evidence: moderate – Further research may still affect the assessment.
1. What was claimed?
That diabetes remission erodes ('relapse within a few years').
2. What is demonstrably correct?
Correct that remission declines: SOS 72.3% -> 30.4% (A-BAR-23), Adams 75% -> 51% (A-BAR-04), LABS 71% -> 60% at 7 years (A-BAR-06), Mingrone 58.8% of early remitters relapsed (I-BAR-03), ARMMS 18.2% at 7 years and 12.7% at 12 years (I-BAR-02).
3. What is wrong or exaggerated?
'Within a few years' is exaggerated (declines are gradual over 7-15 years). The archive omits that control groups had far lower remission (SOS 6.5%; ARMMS 0%), that microvascular complications were halved (HR 0.44), that diabetes incidence fell by >90% and that 69% of patients in remission at 2 years remained diabetes-free at 12 years, with 12-year remission far higher than in non-operated controls (adjusted OR 8.9 and 14.8) (Adams, A-BAR-04), and that relapsers in Mingrone kept HbA1c around 6.7%. The Arabic SOS headline wrongly says 30.4% of initially remitted patients stayed in remission.
4. What remains unclear?
Long-term effect of modern procedures on hard outcomes.
5. Which studies support it?
A-BAR-04, A-BAR-06, A-BAR-23, I-BAR-02, I-BAR-03.
6. Which studies contradict it?
A-BAR-24, A-BAR-23 (complications), I-BAR-03 (glycaemic control), I-BAR-02.
7. What applies to Germany and Europe?
Most key data are European (Sweden SOS/SOReg, Finland SLEEVEPASS, Switzerland SM-BOSS). European and international society guidelines consider bariatric surgery for severe obesity with lifelong follow-up.
8. What is known about Egypt?
No Egypt-specific outcome data were identified in this review. Elawady states in a transcript that sleeve gastrectomy is very widely performed in Egypt ('مصر كلها بتعملها'); the procedure-specific risks (reflux, deficiencies) apply wherever it is performed, and follow-up quality (supplements, endoscopy, mental-health screening) determines part of the risk.
9. What practical conclusion is appropriate?
Remission is not permanent for many; continued diabetes monitoring after surgery is needed. Relapse does not cancel the comparative benefit.
Assessment details
- Rationale for certainty of evidence
Consistent across cohorts and RCTs that remission declines; equally consistent that surgery remains superior to medical therapy.
- Source quality
Numbers correct; framing selective (controls and complication reduction not mentioned); Arabic headline misstates the 30.4% denominator.
- Regional transferability
European RCT and SOS data.
- Individual exceptions
Relapse more likely with longer diabetes duration and weight regain (general knowledge; not quantified here).
- Regional scope of the claim
- general (biological/medical)
- Last reviewed
- 25 October 2026 provisional
In plain language
The archive says the diabetes benefit of weight-loss surgery fades. It is true that many people whose diabetes went into remission later relapse: in Sweden, remission fell from 72% at two years to 30% at 15 years. But people without surgery did much worse (only 6.5% in remission), and diabetes complications were about halved after surgery. So relapse is common, but surgery still kept an advantage over usual care.
Studies on this claim
Studies supporting the claim (3)
-
12 years after gastric bypass
Adams TD et al.. N Engl J Med 2017 · PMID 28930514 · DOI 10.1056/NEJMoa1700459Cohort studycited by the Tayebat archivefull text checked★ key studyHalf of the patients with diabetes were still in remission after 12 years; new diabetes was about 90% less frequent than in non-operated people.
The diabetes remission achieved by bariatric surgery erodes over time (SOS: 72% at 2 years to 30.4% at 15 years; Adams: 75% to 51%).
Does the study support the specific claim? Partly · Methodological quality: moderate · Certainty of evidence: see overall assessment of the claim
Original publication · Scientific details
Study explained simply
- What did the researchers want to find out?
Long-term outcomes
- How was the study done?
Prospective controlled cohort
- How many people, animals or samples were studied?
1156 adults
- What was actually found?
Remission declines but benefit persists
- How large was the observed effect?
Remission 51% at 12 y; incident T2D OR 0.08
- What do the results mean in everyday life?
Relapse happens, but many stay in remission
- What are the study's limitations?
Non-randomized; small diabetic subgroup; many controls later had surgery; mostly women in Utah
- What does it say about Elawady's specific claim?
Relapse claim true; 'benefit erodes away' overstated
- Do the results apply to Germany and Europe?
Applicable
- What can explicitly not be concluded from this study?
Exact causal effect; outcomes for sleeve gastrectomy
-
7 years after bypass or band
Courcoulas AP et al.. JAMA Surg 2018 · PMID 29214306 · DOI 10.1001/jamasurg.2017.5025Cohort studycited by the Tayebat archiveabstract only checkedAbout 60% of bypass patients with diabetes were still in remission at 7 years.
The diabetes remission achieved by bariatric surgery erodes over time (SOS: 72% at 2 years to 30.4% at 15 years; Adams: 75% to 51%).
Does the study support the specific claim? Partly · Methodological quality: moderate · Certainty of evidence: see overall assessment of the claim
Original publication · Scientific details
Study explained simply
- What did the researchers want to find out?
Durability
- How was the study done?
Cohort
- How many people, animals or samples were studied?
2348
- What was actually found?
Remission 71%->60% (RYGB)
- How large was the observed effect?
see results
- What do the results mean in everyday life?
Most keep benefit, some relapse
- What are the study's limitations?
No control
- What does it say about Elawady's specific claim?
Partly supports erosion claim
- Do the results apply to Germany and Europe?
Applicable
- What can explicitly not be concluded from this study?
Comparison with non-surgical care
-
SOS: diabetes after 15 years
Sjöström L et al.. JAMA 2014 · PMID 24915261 · DOI 10.1001/jama.2014.5988Cohort studycited by the Tayebat archiveabstract only checked★ key studyRemission fell from 72% at 2 years to 30% at 15 years after surgery (controls: 16% to 6.5%); diabetes complications were about halved.
The diabetes remission achieved by bariatric surgery erodes over time (SOS: 72% at 2 years to 30.4% at 15 years; Adams: 75% to 51%).
Does the study support the specific claim? Partly · Methodological quality: moderate · Certainty of evidence: see overall assessment of the claim
Original publication · Scientific details
Study explained simply
- What did the researchers want to find out?
Diabetes long-term
- How was the study done?
Prospective matched cohort
- How many people, animals or samples were studied?
603 with T2D
- What was actually found?
Remission declines; complications fewer
- How large was the observed effect?
OR 6.3 at 15 y; HR 0.44 microvascular
- What do the results mean in everyday life?
Relapse is common, but surgery still did better than usual care
- What are the study's limitations?
Attrition; non-randomized
- What does it say about Elawady's specific claim?
Relapse true; 'collapse' framing incomplete
- Do the results apply to Germany and Europe?
European
- What can explicitly not be concluded from this study?
Effect of modern procedures
No study in this group is marked as key.
Studies contradicting or limiting the claim (1)
-
STAMPEDE: surgery vs medicines for diabetes
Schauer PR et al.. N Engl J Med 2017 · PMID 28199805 · DOI 10.1056/NEJMoa1600869Randomised controlled trialcited by the Tayebat archivefull text checkedAfter 5 years, 23-29% of operated patients reached near-normal HbA1c vs 5% with medicines alone.
The diabetes remission achieved by bariatric surgery erodes over time (SOS: 72% at 2 years to 30.4% at 15 years; Adams: 75% to 51%).
Does the study support the specific claim? No · Methodological quality: moderate · Certainty of evidence: see overall assessment of the claim
Original publication · Scientific details
Study explained simply
- What did the researchers want to find out?
Diabetes RCT
- How was the study done?
RCT
- How many people, animals or samples were studied?
150
- What was actually found?
Surgery better
- How large was the observed effect?
29%/23% vs 5%
- What do the results mean in everyday life?
Surgery helps more, but most did not reach the target and only 15-22% reached it without diabetes medicines
- What are the study's limitations?
Small single-centre trial; not blinded; more drop-outs in the medical group; ITT result not significant
- What does it say about Elawady's specific claim?
Contradicts 'benefit erodes away'
- Do the results apply to Germany and Europe?
Applicable
- What can explicitly not be concluded from this study?
Hard outcomes
No study in this group is marked as key.
Studies with mixed or unclear results (2)
-
Diabetes 12 years after randomized surgery vs medicine
Courcoulas AP et al.. JAMA 2024 · PMID 38411644 · DOI 10.1001/jama.2024.0318Randomised controlled trialindependent cross-checkabstract only checked★ key studyBlood sugar control stayed better after surgery; full remission was uncommon in both groups but more frequent after surgery (12.7% vs 0%).
The diabetes remission achieved by bariatric surgery erodes over time (SOS: 72% at 2 years to 30.4% at 15 years; Adams: 75% to 51%).
Does the study support the specific claim? Partly · Methodological quality: moderate · Certainty of evidence: see overall assessment of the claim
Original publication · Scientific details
Study explained simply
- What did the researchers want to find out?
Long-term T2D
- How was the study done?
Pooled RCT follow-up
- How many people, animals or samples were studied?
262
- What was actually found?
Surgery better; remission declines
- How large was the observed effect?
HbA1c -1.1% at 12 y
- What do the results mean in everyday life?
Relapse is common, but surgery keeps an advantage
- What are the study's limitations?
Crossover, small
- What does it say about Elawady's specific claim?
Partly supports erosion; contradicts 'no benefit'
- Do the results apply to Germany and Europe?
Applicable
- What can explicitly not be concluded from this study?
Mortality
-
Italian 10-year diabetes surgery trial
Mingrone G et al.. Lancet 2021 · PMID 33485454 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32649-0Randomised controlled trialindependent cross-checkabstract only checked★ key studyMore than half of those in remission at 2 years relapsed, but their sugar control stayed good (HbA1c 6.7%) and complications were fewer than with medicines alone.
The diabetes remission achieved by bariatric surgery erodes over time (SOS: 72% at 2 years to 30.4% at 15 years; Adams: 75% to 51%).
Does the study support the specific claim? Partly · Methodological quality: moderate · Certainty of evidence: see overall assessment of the claim
Original publication · Scientific details
Study explained simply
- What did the researchers want to find out?
Durability
- How was the study done?
RCT
- How many people, animals or samples were studied?
60
- What was actually found?
Relapse frequent; control better
- How large was the observed effect?
RR complications 0.07
- What do the results mean in everyday life?
Relapse does not mean the benefit is lost
- What are the study's limitations?
Tiny
- What does it say about Elawady's specific claim?
Partly supports
- Do the results apply to Germany and Europe?
European
- What can explicitly not be concluded from this study?
Generalizability
No study in this group is marked as key.
Regional context
Germany / EU
Most key data are European (Sweden SOS/SOReg, Finland SLEEVEPASS, Switzerland SM-BOSS). European and international society guidelines consider bariatric surgery for severe obesity with lifelong follow-up.
Egypt
No Egypt-specific outcome data were identified in this review. Elawady states in a transcript that sleeve gastrectomy is very widely performed in Egypt ('مصر كلها بتعملها'); the procedure-specific risks (reflux, deficiencies) apply wherever it is performed, and follow-up quality (supplements, endoscopy, mental-health screening) determines part of the risk.
What applies in my country?
General scientific assessment
Mostly true Remission often fades, but surgery remains better than usual care for diabetes.
This statement concerns biological or medical relationships. The scientific assessment above applies regardless of the country; country-specific food data do not change it.
References
- Weight and Metabolic Outcomes 12 Years after Gastric Bypass.. Adams TD et al.. N Engl J Med 2017 · PMID 28930514 · DOI 10.1056/NEJMoa1700459
- Seven-Year Weight Trajectories and Health Outcomes in the Longitudinal Assessment of Bariatric Surgery (LABS) Study.. Courcoulas AP et al.. JAMA Surg 2018 · PMID 29214306 · DOI 10.1001/jamasurg.2017.5025
- Association of bariatric surgery with long-term remission of type 2 diabetes and with microvascular and macrovascular complications.. Sjöström L et al.. JAMA 2014 · PMID 24915261 · DOI 10.1001/jama.2014.5988
- Bariatric Surgery versus Intensive Medical Therapy for Diabetes - 5-Year Outcomes.. Schauer PR et al.. N Engl J Med 2017 · PMID 28199805 · DOI 10.1056/NEJMoa1600869
- Long-Term Outcomes of Medical Management vs Bariatric Surgery in Type 2 Diabetes.. Courcoulas AP et al.. JAMA 2024 · PMID 38411644 · DOI 10.1001/jama.2024.0318
- Metabolic surgery versus conventional medical therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes: 10-year follow-up of an open-label, single-centre, randomised controlled trial.. Mingrone G et al.. Lancet 2021 · PMID 33485454 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32649-0