Nezam El-Tayebat Fact CheckA scientific assessment of the “نظام الطيبات” nutrition system
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Mostly true Certainty of evidence: moderate provisional C-SYS-02

Food is the first (leading) cause of modern (non-communicable) diseases.

Conclusion: One major global analysis ranks poor diet as the leading risk factor for death, although rankings depend on how risks are grouped; the dietary risks that matter most (salt, low whole grains and fruit) are not those the system emphasises.
  1. Original statement
  2. Scientific assessment
  3. In plain language
  4. Studies on this claim
  5. Regional context
  6. What applies in my country?
  7. References

Original statement

الغذاء عند د. ضياء هو السبب الأول للأمراض المستحدثة

verbatim according to source. Translation by the project; the Arabic wording is authoritative.

Translation

Food is the first (leading) cause of modern (non-communicable) diseases.

Origin

Source status
Archive editors
Attribution
Archive editors summarising Elawady's view
Origin
https://eltayebat.com/
Attribution uncertainty
Written by archive operators; not attributed to Elawady.
Population concerned

General

Geographic restriction by Elawady

none found

Scientific assessment

Mostly true – Correct at its core, but with limitations or minor inaccuracies.

Certainty of evidence: moderate – Further research may still affect the assessment.

1. What was claimed?

Food is the primary cause of modern diseases.

2. What is demonstrably correct?

Diet is among the leading risk factors: 11 million deaths (22% of adult deaths) in 2017 were attributed to dietary risks in GBD 2017, and that analysis states this exceeds any other risk including tobacco (I-SYS-01). In GBD 2019, dietary risks were still the second (females, 3.48 million deaths) and third (males, 4.47 million) leading Level-2 risk for deaths (I-SYS-02), and diet also contributes to high blood pressure, high BMI and high blood glucose, which are counted separately.

3. What is wrong or exaggerated?

'First cause' depends on how risks are grouped and on the GBD version: in GBD 2019, high systolic blood pressure (19.2% of deaths) and tobacco (15.4%) were the leading Level-2 risks, dietary risks ranked fifth for DALYs, and the diet-attributable burden for 2017 was revised 29.7% lower than in GBD 2017 (I-SYS-02). For cancer, smoking leads (I-CAN-03). The main dietary risks are high sodium, low whole grains and low fruit (I-SYS-01) - not the foods emphasised by the system.

4. What remains unclear?

Ranking diet vs blood pressure overlaps because diet contributes to blood pressure.

5. Which studies support it?

I-SYS-01.

6. Which studies contradict it?

I-SYS-02, I-CAN-03.

7. What applies to Germany and Europe?

Same global evidence.

8. What is known about Egypt?

Same.

9. What practical conclusion is appropriate?

Diet is a major lever for chronic-disease prevention, together with tobacco, alcohol, physical activity, blood pressure control and others.

Assessment details

Rationale for certainty of evidence

GBD 2017 ranks suboptimal diet as responsible for more deaths than any other risk (22% of adult deaths; I-SYS-01). The later GBD 2019 analysis revised diet-attributable burden for 2017 downward by 29.7% and ranks dietary risks second (females) and third (males) among Level-2 risks for deaths and fifth for DALYs, behind high systolic blood pressure and tobacco (I-SYS-02); however, part of the blood-pressure, BMI and glucose burden is itself diet-mediated. Causal evidence for diet is weaker than for tobacco.

Source quality

Archive editorial.

Regional transferability

High.

Regional scope of the claim
general (biological/medical)
Last reviewed
25 October 2026 provisional

In plain language

The archive says food is the first cause of modern diseases. One large global study estimated that poor diet is linked to about one in five adult deaths, more than any other single risk. A later update of the same project lowered this estimate and ranks high blood pressure and tobacco first, with diet second or third for deaths; but diet itself also raises blood pressure. The dietary problems that matter most are too much salt and too few whole grains and fruits.

Studies on this claim

Studies supporting the claim (1)

  • Poor diet is linked to about one in five adult deaths worldwide

    GBD 2017 Diet Collaborators. Lancet 2019 · PMID 30954305 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30041-8
    Risk assessmentindependent cross-checkfull text checked★ key study

    11 million deaths in 2017 were attributed to dietary risks, mainly too much salt and too few whole grains and fruits.

    Diet responsible for ~22% of adult deaths

    Does the study support the specific claim? Partly · Methodological quality: moderate · Certainty of evidence: see overall assessment of the claim

    Original publication · Scientific details

    Study explained simply
    What did the researchers want to find out?

    Quantify diet-attributable deaths.

    How was the study done?

    GBD comparative risk assessment.

    How many people, animals or samples were studied?

    195 countries.

    What was actually found?

    11 million deaths (22%).

    How large was the observed effect?

    Sodium 3 m, whole grains 3 m, fruit 2 m deaths.

    What do the results mean in everyday life?

    Eat more whole grains and fruit, less salt.

    What are the study's limitations?

    Observational inputs.

    What does it say about Elawady's specific claim?

    Diet matters; the main dietary problems differ from the system's forbidden list.

    Do the results apply to Germany and Europe?

    High.

    What can explicitly not be concluded from this study?

    That food is the sole cause.

    Scientific details →

Studies contradicting or limiting the claim (2)

  • High blood pressure and tobacco are the top risk factors for death worldwide

    GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborators. Lancet 2020 · PMID 33069327 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30752-2
    Risk assessmentindependent cross-checkfull text checked★ key study

    In 2019, high blood pressure was linked to 10.8 million and tobacco to 8.7 million deaths.

    Top Level-2 risks: high SBP, tobacco

    Does the study support the specific claim? No · Methodological quality: moderate · Certainty of evidence: see overall assessment of the claim

    Original publication · Scientific details

    Study explained simply
    What did the researchers want to find out?

    Rank risk factors.

    How was the study done?

    GBD 2019.

    How many people, animals or samples were studied?

    204 countries.

    What was actually found?

    High blood pressure and tobacco lead; dietary risks rank among the top five; all 87 risks together explain 47.8% of global disease burden.

    How large was the observed effect?

    19.2% and 15.4% of deaths.

    What do the results mean in everyday life?

    Check blood pressure; avoid tobacco; diet is one lever.

    What are the study's limitations?

    Modelling.

    What does it say about Elawady's specific claim?

    Multiple causes.

    Do the results apply to Germany and Europe?

    High.

    What can explicitly not be concluded from this study?

    Individual risk.

    Scientific details →

  • Smoking, alcohol and excess weight lead global avoidable cancer deaths

    GBD 2019 Cancer Risk Factors Collaborators. Lancet 2022 · PMID 35988567 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01438-6
    Risk assessmentindependent cross-checkfull text checked

    44% of cancer deaths worldwide in 2019 were attributable to known risk factors, smoking first; diet accounted for about 5-6% of cancer burden.

    For cancer, smoking leads

    Does the study support the specific claim? Partly · Methodological quality: moderate · Certainty of evidence: see overall assessment of the claim

    Original publication · Scientific details

    Study explained simply
    What did the researchers want to find out?

    Global attributable cancer burden.

    How was the study done?

    GBD modelling.

    How many people, animals or samples were studied?

    204 countries.

    What was actually found?

    4.45 million cancer deaths (44.4%) attributable to modelled risks in 2019; tobacco 33.9% of male and 10.7% of female cancer DALYs; dietary risks 5.9% and 5.1%.

    How large was the observed effect?

    4.45 million deaths.

    What do the results mean in everyday life?

    Avoid tobacco and alcohol, keep healthy weight.

    What are the study's limitations?

    Model-based estimates; sparse data in many countries; infections and UV not included.

    What does it say about Elawady's specific claim?

    Diet is one factor among several.

    Do the results apply to Germany and Europe?

    High.

    What can explicitly not be concluded from this study?

    That the remaining 56% of cancer deaths have no external cause (infections and UV were not modelled); individual risk for a given person.

    Scientific details →

Studies with mixed or unclear results (0)

No studies in this group.

Regional context

Germany / EU

Same global evidence.

Egypt

Same.

What applies in my country?

General scientific assessment

Mostly true One major global analysis ranks poor diet as the leading risk factor for death, although rankings depend on how risks are grouped; the dietary risks that matter most (salt, low whole grains and fruit) are not those the system emphasises.

This statement concerns biological or medical relationships. The scientific assessment above applies regardless of the country; country-specific food data do not change it.

References

  1. Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.. GBD 2017 Diet Collaborators. Lancet 2019 · PMID 30954305 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30041-8
  2. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.. GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborators. Lancet 2020 · PMID 33069327 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30752-2
  3. The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.. GBD 2019 Cancer Risk Factors Collaborators. Lancet 2022 · PMID 35988567 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01438-6

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