Otherindependent cross-checkabstract checked I-ABX-133 standard review
Malaria killed about 643,000 people in 2019 (GBD)
Trends of the Global, Regional and National Incidence, Mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years of Malaria, 1990-2019: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
Overview
Shi D et al.. Risk Manag Healthc Policy 2023 · PMID 37396933 · DOI 10.2147/RMHP.S419616
GBD-based estimate of 643,000 malaria deaths worldwide in 2019.
Does the study support the specific claim? No · Methodological quality: moderate
Plain-language summary
Study explained simply
- What did the researchers want to find out?
Describe malaria trends
- How was the study done?
Secondary analysis of GBD 2019
- How many people, animals or samples were studied?
Global
- What was actually found?
643,000 deaths in 2019
- How large was the observed effect?
Not applicable
- What do the results mean in everyday life?
Needed for the comparison
- What are the study's limitations?
No uncertainty interval in abstract
- What does it say about Elawady's specific claim?
Shows the 'combined' comparison fails for attributable deaths
- Do the results apply to Germany and Europe?
Not applicable
- What can explicitly not be concluded from this study?
Exact ranking
Scientific in-depth review
1. Full reference
- Authors
- Shi D et al.
- Journal
- Risk Manag Healthc Policy
- Year
- 2023
- Identifier
- PMID 37396933 DOI 10.2147/RMHP.S419616
- Verification
- verified – PubMed efetch 2026-10-26 + Crossref
- Retracted
- no
- Corrections
- none
- Extent checked
- abstract only
- Conflicts of interest and funding
Not stated in abstract.
2. Research question
What was the malaria burden 1990-2019?
3. Study design and population
- Study design
- Other – Secondary analysis of GBD 2019 estimates
- Population
Global population
- Country
Global
- Period
1990-2019
- Sample size
not applicable
- Inclusion and exclusion criteria
GBD 2019 data
4. Methods and endpoints
- Exposure / intervention
Malaria
- Comparator
not applicable
- Endpoints
Incidence, deaths, DALYs
- Statistical methods
Descriptive trends from GBD
5. Actual results
- Results
2019: 2313.57 x 10^5 incident cases and 6.43 x 10^5 (643,000) deaths; 464.38 x 10^5 DALYs.
- Absolute risks
643,000 deaths in 2019
- Authors' conclusion
Malaria burden decreased globally 1990-2019.
6. Strengths
- Uses GBD 2019, same framework as AMR estimate
7. Weaknesses
- Secondary analysis; no UI given in abstract for deaths
- Lower-tier journal
8. Risk of bias
- Orienting tool
- none applicable
- Type of assessment
- simplified assessment (abstract only)
- Full formal assessment
- no
- Overall risk of bias
- not assessable
- Rationale
Secondary use of GBD data.
9. Assessment of the statistical interpretation
WHO World Malaria Report figures differ (not reviewed).
10. Relevance to the specific claim
Provides GBD 2019 malaria deaths for the combined comparison.
11. Independent contrary findings
Other sources (WHO) give different malaria counts.
12. Transferability to Germany and Europe
Not region-specific.
13. Overall methodological judgement
Combined with HIV, about 1.51 million deaths in 2019.
| Multidimensional assessment | |
|---|---|
| Authenticity of the source | verified |
| Methodological quality | moderate |
| Risk of bias | not assessable |
| Precision of results | moderate |
| Directness | direct |
| Reproducibility | replicated |
| Consistency with the overall evidence | consistent |
| Regional transferability | high |
| Adequacy of the interpretation (by the archive) | not applicable |
14. Open questions
Uncertainty interval for malaria deaths.
15. Linked fact checks
- The AMR death toll exceeds HIV and malaria combined. – Studies contradicting or limiting the claim