慢性病主要是对每天进入身体的东西——受污染的食物、药物和化妆品——的累积反应，而不是来自外界的宿命。
原始表述
ومن هنا فإن المرض المزمن ليس قَدَرًا ينزل بالجسد من خارجه، بل هو في الغالب ردّ فعل تراكمي على ما يدخل إليه يوميًا من طعام ملوّث وأدوية ومستحضرات.
按来源为原话. 译文由本项目提供；以阿拉伯语原文为准。
译文
慢性病主要是对每天进入身体的东西——受污染的食物、药物和化妆品——的累积反应，而不是来自外界的宿命。
出处
- 来源状态
- 档案网站编辑
- 归属
- Archive editors (homepage introduction)
- 出处
- https://eltayebat.com/
- 归属的不确定性
- Written by archive operators; not attributed to Elawady.
- 涉及人群
General
- Elawady 设定的地域限制
none found
来源版本存在差异
او مدخلات تحمل السموم الصريحه بقايا مضادات حيويه بقايا مخصبات ومنشطات وكيماويات واسمده نيتروجينيه بقايا مبيدات حشريه
- 来源状态
- 视频转录文本（本人原话）
- 归属
- Elawady (machine transcript)
- 视频
- بيان فلسفه النظريه (打开来源)
- 发布日期
- 2026年2月14日
- 时间戳
- 0:03:06 (在原视频 YouTube 自动字幕轨中的位置；可确认该内容出现的位置，但不能确认说话人是谁)
科学评估
基本错误 – 该说法的主要部分没有证据支持，或被严重夸大。
证据确定性: 中 – 进一步研究仍可能影响该评估。
1. 说法是什么？
Chronic disease is mostly caused by food, medicines and cosmetics.
2. 哪些内容可证实是正确的？
Diet contributes substantially (about 22% of adult deaths; I-SYS-01); some medicines have long-term harms (audited by other teams, e.g., PPIs).
3. 哪些内容是错误或夸大的？
Tobacco (15.4% of deaths), high blood pressure (19.2%), air pollution, alcohol and others are major causes (I-SYS-02); for cancer, smoking dominates and infections cause 2.2 million cancers yearly (I-CAN-02, I-CAN-05). About one-third of variation in cancer risk is heritable (I-CAN-04); the authors note that heritability is not an attributable fraction, and the large non-shared environmental component they found is compatible with many kinds of environmental causes, which the study does not break down into food, medicines or cosmetics. In GBD 2019, all 87 environmental, occupational, behavioural and metabolic risks combined explained 47.8% (45.3-50.1) of global DALYs (I-SYS-02), so most disease burden is not attributed even to the full set of quantified risks, let alone to food, medicines and cosmetics. Ageing is the strongest risk factor for most chronic diseases (general knowledge; not quantified here). Medicines and cosmetics are not identified as leading causes in these analyses.
4. 哪些内容仍不明确？
The share of chronic disease attributable specifically to food contaminants, medicines and cosmetics (as opposed to overall dietary pattern) is not quantified in the global risk analyses reviewed. Because GBD covers only risks with sufficient evidence, the unattributed half of the burden may include exposures that are not yet quantified; this does not show that they are food, medicines or cosmetics.
5. 哪些研究支持该说法？
I-SYS-01 (partial).
6. 哪些研究与该说法相矛盾？
7. 对德国和欧洲而言情况如何？
The global risk analyses (I-SYS-01, I-SYS-02) include European countries; the leading risks (tobacco, blood pressure, diet) are similar.
8. 关于埃及的已知情况是什么？
The global analyses include Egypt; Egypt-specific attributable fractions were not extracted.
9. 合理的实际结论是什么？
预防应针对多种原因，而不只是食物。
评估详情
- 证据确定性的依据
Global risk analyses identify many causes - tobacco, blood pressure, alcohol, air pollution, infections, genetics, ageing; diet is major but not 'mostly' the cause, and medicines/cosmetics are not leading causes.
- 来源质量
Archive editorial.
- 地区可推广性
High.
- 说法的地域范围
- 普遍性（生物学/医学）
- 最近审核
- 2026年10月26日 初步
科学证据详解
过度解读 – 确有真实的发现，但该说法从中引申出的结论超出了数据所能支持的范围（例如把关联当作因果、把动物数据套用到人身上、把小效应说成大效应）。
研究问题: Is chronic disease mostly a cumulative reaction to daily inputs (contaminated food, medicines, cosmetics) rather than fate?
研究问题详解 (PECO)
- 人群
- General population
- 干预或暴露
- Food contaminants, medicines, cosmetics; other environmental and genetic factors
- 对照
- Other causes
- 地域范围
- universal; production-dependent for contaminants
- 结局指标
- Attributable disease burden
- Variance explained
研究结果按作者报告呈现。我们的评估见下文。
哪些证据支持该说法？
Genes explain a minority of chronic disease
Twin-based PAFs: genetics explain a median 18.5% of chronic disease risk.
- 实际结果
- 16.4% of deaths attributable to genetics plus shared exposures
- 方法学质量
- moderate
- 相关性
- supports 'not genetic fate'
- 局限
- Non-genetic share includes chance and all exposures.
Environment matters more than genes for early death
Exposome explains more mortality variation than polygenic scores.
- 实际结果
- 17 vs <2 percentage points
- 方法学质量
- moderate
- 相关性
- supports 'environment > genes'
- 局限
- Main drivers smoking/SES/activity, not food contaminants.
哪些证据不支持该说法？
Global health 2023
GBD 2023 Disease and Injury and Risk Factor Collaborators. Lancet 2025 · PMID 41092926 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01637-X 风险评估已核查摘要新增GBD 2023: all 88 quantified risks explain about half of DALYs; leading risks SBP, air pollution, glucose, smoking.
- 实际结果
- 1.27 of 2.80 billion DALYs
- 方法学质量
- high
- 相关性
- direct
- 局限
- Model-based.
High blood pressure and tobacco are the top risk factors for death worldwide
GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborators. Lancet 2020 · PMID 33069327 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30752-2 风险评估全文，含结构化偏倚风险评估GBD 2019: tobacco, blood pressure and others major; medicines/cosmetics not leading causes.
- 实际结果
- As recorded
- 方法学质量
- high
- 相关性
- direct
- 局限
- Model-based.
Random copying errors in cells and cancer
Chance replication errors explain many cancer mutations.
- 实际结果
- ~2/3 of mutations
- 方法学质量
- moderate
- 相关性
- contradicts 'mostly inputs'
- 局限
- Contested.
总体证据说明了什么？
基于上述研究的编辑评估——其本身并非研究结果。
哪种观点有更好的证据支持？
Chronic disease is largely not genetic fate - environment and behaviour matter more - but the main identified drivers are tobacco, blood pressure, air pollution, glucose/BMI, diet, alcohol, socioeconomic factors and chance, not mainly food contaminants, medicines and cosmetics.
为什么有些研究权重更大
GBD analyses quantify drivers; exposome and twin studies support the 'not fate' kernel only.
因果关系是否已确立？ 尚未确立 No evidence quantifies contaminants, medicines and cosmetics as the main cause.
仍存在的不确定性
Unmeasured exposures may account for part of the unattributed burden.
合理的结论
The 'not fate' part is reasonable; the 'mostly food contaminants, medicines and cosmetics' part is not supported.
这是否取决于国家？
- 一般生物学效应
- Universal human biology; applies in Egypt, Germany and elsewhere.
- 饮食习惯
- Not decisive for this claim.
- 食品原产地
- Not relevant.
- 污染物
- Contaminant exposure differs by country; no robust data show contaminants as the main driver of chronic disease in Egypt or Europe.
- 本国生产条件
- Not relevant.
- 法律规则
- Not relevant.
- 实际监测数据
- See residues teams for contaminant monitoring.
足以改变结论的地区差异没有可靠数据支持。
统计复核
- Share attributable to all quantified risks – 45.4%. 已重新计算
总体证据的确定性（GRADE，简化版）
- 主要结局
- Main causes of chronic disease burden
- 起始等级
- 高（随机试验）
- 降级理由
- indirectness (model-based)
- 结果
- 中
由单名审查者参照 GRADE 方法进行的简化评估；并非正式的 GRADE 专家组评估。GRADE 评价的是针对某一结局的整体证据，而非单项研究。
已核查的临床指南和官方声明
- WHO: Cancer - fact sheet (2026) · 原始文献
About 38% of cancers can be prevented by avoiding risk factors (tobacco, alcohol, unhealthy diet, inactivity, air pollution); about 10% are attributable to infections; many cancers can be cured if detected early and treated effectively.
检索策略
本次审查的文献检索记录（检索式采用原数据库语法）。
| 数据库 | 日期 | 检索式 | 检索目标 | 命中数 | 纳入数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe PMC | 2026年10月26日 | TITLE:"Genetic Factors Are Not the Major Causes of Chronic Diseases" | 支持性证据 | 1 | |
| Europe PMC | 2026年10月26日 | (exposome OR "environmental exposures" OR "chemical exposures") AND ("chronic disease" OR "non-communicable") AND (attributable OR "burden") AND (TITLE:exposome OR TITLE:chemicals) AND (review OR meta-analysis) | 支持性证据 | 118 | |
| Europe PMC | 2026年10月26日 | TITLE:"Integrating the environmental and genetic architectures of aging and mortality" | 双向 | 1 | |
| Europe PMC | 2026年10月26日 | (Tayebat OR Tayibat OR Elawady OR "El-Awady diet" OR "Al-Awady") | 双向 | 377 | |
| PubMed | 2026年10月26日 | (exposome[ti]) AND (chronic disease[tiab] OR mortality[tiab]) | 支持性证据 | 58 |
核查深度如何？
12 项相关研究：3 项核查了全文（其中 2 项进行了结构化偏倚风险评估），9 项基于摘要核查，0 项仅核查了文献信息。 尚未进行由两名独立审查者完成的正式评估，也尚未进行独立的人类专家审核。
最近一次科学审核: 2026年10月26日
评定结论的变更历史
- 2026年10月25日 · 第 1 阶段 · 初始评估: 基本错误 (中)
- 2026年10月26日 · 第 4 阶段（系统证据审查） · 在扩展证据后重新审查；评定结论不变: 基本错误 (中)
Unchanged; new studies support the 'not genetic fate' kernel (I-SYS-103, I-SYS-104) but identify other drivers than food contaminants, medicines and cosmetics.
新来源: I-SYS-102 I-SYS-103 I-SYS-104 I-CAN-117 I-CAN-130
通俗解释
该档案网站说，慢性病主要是对食物、药物和化妆品的反应。食物很重要。但大型研究表明，烟草、高血压、饮酒、空气污染、感染、基因和衰老也导致了大量慢性病。药物和化妆品并不在主要原因之列。
与该说法相关的研究
支持该说法的研究 (0)
该组中没有研究。
与该说法相矛盾或限制该说法的研究 (8)
-
High blood pressure and tobacco are the top risk factors for death worldwide
GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborators. Lancet 2020 · PMID 33069327 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30752-2风险评估独立交叉核查全文，含结构化偏倚风险评估★ 关键研究In 2019, high blood pressure was linked to 10.8 million and tobacco to 8.7 million deaths.
Multiple causes
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 否 · 方法学质量: 中 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Rank risk factors.
- 研究是如何开展的？
GBD 2019.
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
204 countries.
- 实际发现了什么？
High blood pressure and tobacco lead; dietary risks rank among the top five; all 87 risks together explain 47.8% of global disease burden.
- 观察到的效应有多大？
19.2% and 15.4% of deaths.
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Check blood pressure; avoid tobacco; diet is one lever.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Modelling.
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Multiple causes.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High.
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
Individual risk.
-
Smokers die about ten years earlier; quitting gives years back
Doll R et al.. BMJ 2004 · PMID 15213107 · DOI 10.1136/bmj.38142.554479.AE队列研究独立交叉核查已核查摘要★ 关键研究Smoking tripled death rates; stopping at 30 avoided almost all the excess risk.
Tobacco, not food, major cause
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 否 · 方法学质量: 高 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Measure smoking hazards over 50 years.
- 研究是如何开展的？
Prospective cohort.
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
34,439 doctors.
- 实际发现了什么？
Smokers die ~10 years earlier.
- 观察到的效应有多大？
3-fold mortality.
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Stopping smoking at any age helps.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Men only.
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Contradicts smoking dismissal.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High.
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
Effects of other tobacco products.
-
Four in ten cancers in the USA are linked to avoidable risk factors, led by smoking
Islami F et al.. CA Cancer J Clin 2024 · PMID 38990124 · DOI 10.3322/caac.21858风险评估独立交叉核查已核查摘要★ 关键研究Smoking accounted for 19% of cancers and 29% of cancer deaths; excess weight and alcohol followed.
Tobacco, alcohol, infections, UV - not only food
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 部分支持 · 方法学质量: 中 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Estimate preventable cancers.
- 研究是如何开展的？
PAF analysis.
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
US 2019.
- 实际发现了什么？
40% of cases attributable.
- 观察到的效应有多大？
Smoking 19.3%/28.5%.
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Not smoking, healthy weight, less alcohol and a diet with fibre, fruit and vegetables lower risk.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Model assumptions.
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Diet matters but is not the main cause.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
Moderate.
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
Individual cause.
-
About a third of cancer risk is inherited
Mucci LA et al.. JAMA 2016 · PMID 26746459 · DOI 10.1001/jama.2015.17703队列研究独立交叉核查全文，含结构化偏倚风险评估Heritability of cancer overall was 33% in 200,000 Nordic twins.
Genetics as cause
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 否 · 方法学质量: 高 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Estimate heritability.
- 研究是如何开展的？
Twin cohort.
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
203,691.
- 实际发现了什么？
33% heritability.
- 观察到的效应有多大？
Melanoma 58%, prostate 57%.
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Family history matters for screening.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Nordic, mainly white population; twin models assume equal shared environments, which cannot be tested.
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Not all cancer is lifestyle.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High.
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
That the remaining two-thirds of risk is due to food; heritability is not the share of cancers preventable by lifestyle (authors); specific genes.
-
Infections cause about 2.2 million cancers a year worldwide
de Martel C et al.. Lancet Glob Health 2020 · PMID 31862245 · DOI 10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30488-7风险评估独立交叉核查已核查摘要H. pylori, HPV and hepatitis B/C viruses cause most infection-related cancers.
Infections as cause
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 否 · 方法学质量: 中 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Estimate infection-related cancer.
- 研究是如何开展的？
PAF.
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
Global.
- 实际发现了什么？
2.2 million cases.
- 观察到的效应有多大？
ASIR 25/100,000.
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Vaccination (HBV, HPV) and treatment of infections prevent cancer.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Modelling.
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Not all cancer is food-related.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High.
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
Individual cause.
-
Global causes of ill health in 2021
GBD 2021 Risk Factors Collaborators. Lancet 2024 · PMID 38762324 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00933-4风险评估独立交叉核查已核查摘要★ 关键研究Air pollution, high blood pressure and smoking were the top single risks; poor diet as a group ranked fifth.
Air pollution, blood pressure, tobacco, malnutrition lead
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 部分支持 · 方法学质量: 高 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Rank risk factors worldwide.
- 研究是如何开展的？
Global modelling study.
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
204 countries.
- 实际发现了什么？
Air pollution and high blood pressure lead.
- 观察到的效应有多大？
PM 8.0%, SBP 7.8%, smoking 5.7% of DALYs.
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Diet matters a lot but is not the only or first cause.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Model-based.
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Partly contradicts 'food is the first cause'.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High.
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
Exact causal shares.
-
Global health 2023
GBD 2023 Disease and Injury and Risk Factor Collaborators. Lancet 2025 · PMID 41092926 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01637-X风险评估独立交叉核查已核查摘要★ 关键研究About half of all ill health is linked to known risk factors; high blood pressure, air pollution, high blood sugar and smoking lead.
Only ~half of burden attributable to all quantified risks
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 部分支持 · 方法学质量: 高 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Global burden 2023.
- 研究是如何开展的？
Modelling.
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
204 countries.
- 实际发现了什么？
Half of burden from known risks.
- 观察到的效应有多大？
1.27/2.80 billion DALYs.
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Many causes besides food.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Model-based.
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Contradicts food-only explanations.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High.
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
Unmeasured causes.
-
Random copying errors in cells and cancer
Tomasetti C et al.. Science 2017 · PMID 28336671 · DOI 10.1126/science.aaf9011生态学研究独立交叉核查已核查摘要★ 关键研究About two-thirds of cancer mutations may come from random errors when cells divide; preventable causes still matter.
Chance mutations, not only inputs, drive cancer
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 部分支持 · 方法学质量: 中 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Estimate sources of cancer mutations.
- 研究是如何开展的？
Modelling across countries and genomes.
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
17 cancer types, 69 countries.
- 实际发现了什么？
Replication errors are a major source.
- 观察到的效应有多大？
~2/3 of mutations.
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Not every cancer is caused by lifestyle, but many are preventable.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Contested method.
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Partly supports internal origin, not a 'plan'.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High.
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
Purpose or benefit of cancer.
该组中没有被标记为关键研究的研究。
结果不一或不明确的研究 (4)
-
Poor diet is linked to about one in five adult deaths worldwide
GBD 2017 Diet Collaborators. Lancet 2019 · PMID 30954305 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30041-8风险评估独立交叉核查已核查全文★ 关键研究11 million deaths in 2017 were attributed to dietary risks, mainly too much salt and too few whole grains and fruits.
Diet major but not majority of causes
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 部分支持 · 方法学质量: 中 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Quantify diet-attributable deaths.
- 研究是如何开展的？
GBD comparative risk assessment.
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
195 countries.
- 实际发现了什么？
11 million deaths (22%).
- 观察到的效应有多大？
Sodium 3 m, whole grains 3 m, fruit 2 m deaths.
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Eat more whole grains and fruit, less salt.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Observational inputs.
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Diet matters; the main dietary problems differ from the system's forbidden list.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High.
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
That food is the sole cause.
-
Environment matters more than genes for early death
Argentieri MA et al.. Nat Med 2025 · PMID 39972219 · DOI 10.1038/s41591-024-03483-9队列研究独立交叉核查已核查摘要★ 关键研究Lifestyle and living conditions explained 17% of variation in mortality, genes less than 2%; smoking and social factors led.
Environment beats genes for mortality; main drivers smoking, SES, activity
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 部分支持 · 方法学质量: 中 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Compare genes and environment.
- 研究是如何开展的？
UK Biobank cohort.
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
~490,000 adults.
- 实际发现了什么？
Environment explains more.
- 观察到的效应有多大？
17 vs <2 points.
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Disease is mostly not fate, but food is only one part.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Observational.
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Partly supports, partly contradicts.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
Moderate-high.
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
Role of food contaminants.
-
Genes explain a minority of chronic disease
Rappaport SM. PLoS One 2016 · PMID 27105432 · DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0154387其他独立交叉核查已核查摘要Genetic factors explained a median of 18.5% of the risk of 28 chronic diseases.
Genetics explain a minority of chronic disease risk
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 部分支持 · 方法学质量: 中 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Estimate genetic share.
- 研究是如何开展的？
Twin data analysis.
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
28 diseases.
- 实际发现了什么？
Genes minor.
- 观察到的效应有多大？
Median 18.5%.
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Disease is largely not fate.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Assumptions.
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Partly supports the claim's 'not fate' part.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High.
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
Which exposures matter.
-
Most cancer risk comes from outside factors
Wu S et al.. Nature 2016 · PMID 26675728 · DOI 10.1038/nature16166其他独立交叉核查已核查摘要★ 关键研究Modelling suggests that internal 'bad luck' explains only about 10-30% of lifetime cancer risk; the rest depends on external factors.
Cancer risk heavily influenced by extrinsic (environmental) factors - but not specifically food, medicines or cosmetics
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 否 · 方法学质量: 中 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Estimate intrinsic vs extrinsic cancer risk.
- 研究是如何开展的？
Modelling with several approaches.
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
Not applicable.
- 实际发现了什么？
Extrinsic factors dominate.
- 观察到的效应有多大？
Intrinsic <10-30%.
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Much cancer is preventable.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Model-based; contested.
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Contradicts 'not caused by external agents'.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High.
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
Which specific exposures.
该组中没有被标记为关键研究的研究。
地区背景
德国 / 欧盟
The global risk analyses (I-SYS-01, I-SYS-02) include European countries; the leading risks (tobacco, blood pressure, diet) are similar.
埃及
The global analyses include Egypt; Egypt-specific attributable fractions were not extracted.
在我的国家适用什么？
一般科学评估
基本错误 慢性病有多种原因；食物是一个重要原因，但并非在所有情况下都是主要原因。
该说法涉及生物学或医学关系。上述科学评估不论在哪个国家都适用；各国食品数据不会改变这一评估。
参考文献
- Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.. GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborators. Lancet 2020 · PMID 33069327 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30752-2
- Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years' observations on male British doctors.. Doll R et al.. BMJ 2004 · PMID 15213107 · DOI 10.1136/bmj.38142.554479.AE
- Proportion and number of cancer cases and deaths attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in the United States, 2019.. Islami F et al.. CA Cancer J Clin 2024 · PMID 38990124 · DOI 10.3322/caac.21858
- Familial Risk and Heritability of Cancer Among Twins in Nordic Countries.. Mucci LA et al.. JAMA 2016 · PMID 26746459 · DOI 10.1001/jama.2015.17703
- Global burden of cancer attributable to infections in 2018: a worldwide incidence analysis.. de Martel C et al.. Lancet Glob Health 2020 · PMID 31862245 · DOI 10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30488-7
- Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.. GBD 2021 Risk Factors Collaborators. Lancet 2024 · PMID 38762324 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00933-4
- Burden of 375 diseases and injuries, risk-attributable burden of 88 risk factors, and healthy life expectancy in 204 countries and territories, including 660 subnational locations, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.. GBD 2023 Disease and Injury and Risk Factor Collaborators. Lancet 2025 · PMID 41092926 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01637-X
- Stem cell divisions, somatic mutations, cancer etiology, and cancer prevention.. Tomasetti C et al.. Science 2017 · PMID 28336671 · DOI 10.1126/science.aaf9011
- Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.. GBD 2017 Diet Collaborators. Lancet 2019 · PMID 30954305 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30041-8
- Integrating the environmental and genetic architectures of aging and mortality.. Argentieri MA et al.. Nat Med 2025 · PMID 39972219 · DOI 10.1038/s41591-024-03483-9
- Genetic Factors Are Not the Major Causes of Chronic Diseases.. Rappaport SM. PLoS One 2016 · PMID 27105432 · DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0154387
- Substantial contribution of extrinsic risk factors to cancer development.. Wu S et al.. Nature 2016 · PMID 26675728 · DOI 10.1038/nature16166