不应接种任何疫苗：疫苗接种、药物和草药都是被禁止的。
原始表述
عقلك من الصندوق انت راجل صاحب فكر ماشي ما فيش تطعيمات يا باشا استاذ سوزي سوسي ممنوع التطعيمات ممنوع الادويه ممنوع الاعشاب كل حاجه قديمه للبيع ساره السيد ازيك ما انا لايف النهارده
按来源为原话. 译文由本项目提供；以阿拉伯语原文为准。
译文
不应接种任何疫苗：疫苗接种、药物和草药都是被禁止的。
出处
- 来源状态
- 视频转录文本（本人原话）
- 归属
- Elawady (machine transcript)
- 视频
- Dr Diaa Al Awady د ضياء العوضي is live!صباح الخير اتباع العوضي (打开来源)
- 发布日期
- 2025年9月19日
- 时间戳
- 1:06:40 (在原视频 YouTube 自动字幕轨中的位置；可确认该内容出现的位置，但不能确认说话人是谁)
- 归属的不确定性
- Transcript is YouTube CC or machine-generated (no timestamps); wording may contain speech-recognition errors. Speaker attribution within live streams/podcasts is not marked in the transcript; the excerpt was judged to be Elawady's own speech from context. Recurrence = number of archive transcripts matching the keyword pattern ['تطعيمات|التطعيمات|لقاح|اللقاحات'] (approximate; includes re-uploads/clips; 30 distinct text passages).
- 所声称的机制
Not stated in this excerpt.
- 所声称的健康影响
Not specified.
- 涉及人群
Everyone (followers).
- Elawady 设定的地域限制
none found; he does not limit this statement to a country or to a production system
来源版本存在差异
- 来源状态
- 视频转录文本（本人原话）
- 归属
- Elawady (machine transcript)
- 视频
- Dr Diaa Al Awady د ضياء العوضي is live! اصل الأمراض في فهم الاعراض✌️✌️✌️ (打开来源)
- 发布日期
- 2025年9月5日
- 时间戳
- 无（转录文本不含时间信息）
- 归属的不确定性
- Further video in which the same statement recurs; no excerpt recorded. Archive transcript without timestamps.
- 来源状态
- 视频转录文本（本人原话）
- 归属
- Elawady (machine transcript)
- 视频
- Dr Diaa Al Awady د ضياء العوضي is live! يعني ايه تجويع الخلايا من السكر و ايه علاقتها بمقاومة الانسو (打开来源)
- 发布日期
- 2025年11月2日
- 时间戳
- 无（转录文本不含时间信息）
- 归属的不确定性
- Further video in which the same statement recurs; no excerpt recorded. Archive transcript without timestamps.
لا ما حدش ياخد تطعيم مدارس خالص ولا يمد في ايده في جسمه بشكه ابره ولا بنقطه ولا بتطعيم ولا اي حاجه
Nobody should take school vaccinations at all, nor let anyone put a needle, a drop or a vaccination into their body.
- 来源状态
- 视频转录文本（本人原话）
- 归属
- Elawady (machine transcript)
- 视频
- Dr Diaa Al Awady د ضياء العوضي is live! الالتهاب ايه هوه ؟ (打开来源)
- 发布日期
- 2025年9月26日
- 时间戳
- 0:41:13 (在原视频 YouTube 自动字幕轨中的位置；可确认该内容出现的位置，但不能确认说话人是谁)
- 归属的不确定性
- Archive transcript (YouTube CC or AI-generated); no timestamps; 'published' is the date listed by the archive and may be the upload date. Live-stream transcripts can contain viewer comments read aloud; the quoted passage was checked in context to be spoken by Elawady.
科学评估
错误 – 该说法与可靠证据相矛盾。
证据确定性: 高 – 进一步研究极不可能改变该评估。
1. 说法是什么？
There should be no vaccinations; vaccinations, medicines and herbs are forbidden (including school vaccinations).
2. 哪些内容可证实是正确的？
Vaccines have side effects, and the Cochrane review quantifies them: MMR-type vaccines cause febrile seizures in about 1 per 1150-1700 doses and ITP in about 1 per 40,000 doses (lower than after natural infection) (I-INTB-16); inactivated influenza vaccine slightly increases fever (1.5% to 2.3%) and its absolute benefit in healthy adults is modest (I-INTB-13). A systematic review of controlled studies found high-strength evidence for MMR and febrile seizures and moderate evidence for rotavirus vaccine and intussusception, all extremely rare (I-SRC-125).
3. 哪些内容是错误或夸大的？
A ban on vaccination contradicts strong evidence of benefit: measles vaccine effectiveness 95% after one dose and 96% after two (I-INTB-16); about 154 million deaths averted since 1974, including 101 million infants (I-INTB-15). No association with autism (OR 0.99) (I-INTB-17) or with encephalitis, type 1 diabetes, asthma or leukaemia (I-INTB-16). In 657,461 Danish children, MMR vaccination was not associated with autism (HR 0.93, 0.85-1.02; I-SRC-104).
4. 哪些内容仍不明确？
Modelled death estimates depend on assumptions (I-INTB-15).
5. 哪些研究支持该说法？
6. 哪些研究与该说法相矛盾？
7. 对德国和欧洲而言情况如何？
Germany's Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO) publishes a standard vaccination calendar for infants, children, adolescents and adults (Impfkalender 2026, rki.de/impfkalender, fetched 2026-10-26).
8. 关于埃及的已知情况是什么？
Egypt has compulsory childhood vaccinations. WHO regional data show 96-97% first-dose and 95-96% second-dose measles vaccine coverage in Egypt in 2023-2024, measles incidence falling from 2.2 per million to zero, and verified sustained measles and rubella elimination for 2024, while low-coverage countries in the region had large outbreaks, mostly among unvaccinated children (I-SRC-105).
9. 合理的实际结论是什么？
请遵循国家免疫规划程序；如有任何顾虑或禁忌证，请与医生讨论。
评估详情
- 证据确定性的依据
- 来源质量
Machine transcript of a live stream; wording may contain recognition errors; meaning checked in context. Repeated in other live streams (e.g. against school vaccinations).
- 地区可推广性
Universal; Egypt has a national childhood immunisation programme.
- 个体例外情况
Some people have specific contraindications (e.g. severe allergy to a vaccine component, some immunodeficiencies for live vaccines); these are decided individually.
- 说法的地域范围
- 普遍性（生物学/医学）
- 最近审核
- 2026年10月26日 初步
科学证据详解
已被科学证据否定 – 高质量证据显示情况恰恰相反，或该说法与已确立的生理学知识相矛盾。
研究问题: Does avoiding all vaccinations (and medicines and herbs) improve health compared with following national vaccination schedules?
研究问题详解 (PICO)
- 人群
- Children and adults (Egypt and general)
- 干预或暴露
- No vaccination
- 对照
- Vaccination according to national schedules
- 地域范围
- universal biology; Egypt-specific coverage and measles data
- 结局指标
- Vaccine-preventable disease incidence and deaths
- Serious adverse events
- Autism
研究结果按作者报告呈现。我们的评估见下文。
哪些证据支持该说法？
Safety of routine childhood vaccines
Systematic review of routine childhood vaccine safety.
- 实际结果
- High strength of evidence for MMR and febrile seizures; moderate for rotavirus vaccine and intussusception; complications of varicella vaccine in immunodeficiency; events extremely rare.
- 方法学质量
- moderate
- 相关性
- direct for harms
- 局限
- No pooling; US formulations.
Measles-mumps-rubella vaccines work and are safe
Di Pietrantonj C et al.. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2021 · PMID 34806766 · DOI 10.1002/14651858.CD004407.pub5 系统综述已核查摘要Cochrane MMR(V) review: harms.
- 实际结果
- Febrile seizures about 1 per 1150-1700 doses; ITP about 1 per 40,000 doses.
- 方法学质量
- high
- 相关性
- direct for harms
- 局限
- Harms are rare.
哪些证据不支持该说法？
50 years of vaccination: lives saved
Shattock AJ et al.. Lancet 2024 · PMID 38705159 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00850-X 风险评估全文，含结构化偏倚风险评估Modelling of 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization.
- 实际结果
- About 154 million deaths averted since 1974, including 101 million infants.
- 方法学质量
- moderate (model)
- 相关性
- direct (population benefit)
- 局限
- Model assumptions.
Measles-mumps-rubella vaccines work and are safe
Di Pietrantonj C et al.. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2021 · PMID 34806766 · DOI 10.1002/14651858.CD004407.pub5 系统综述已核查摘要Cochrane MMR(V) review: effectiveness.
- 实际结果
- Measles vaccine effectiveness 95% after one dose and 96% after two.
- 方法学质量
- high
- 相关性
- direct
- 局限
- Observational components.
Measles in the Eastern Mediterranean 2023-2024
WHO EMR measles data 2023-2024 (full text).
- 实际结果
- Egypt MCV1/MCV2 96/95% (2023), 97/96% (2024); measles incidence 2.2 -> 0 per million; verified sustained elimination 2024; regional outbreaks concentrated in low-coverage settings and in zero-/one-dose children.
- 方法学质量
- moderate (surveillance)
- 相关性
- direct, Egypt-specific
- 局限
- Descriptive.
总体证据说明了什么？
基于上述研究的编辑评估——其本身并非研究结果。
哪种观点有更好的证据支持？
Vaccination according to national schedules; individual contraindications assessed by physicians.
为什么有些研究权重更大
Cochrane reviews, very large cohorts and WHO surveillance outweigh rare, quantified harms. Overlapping Cochrane/meta-analytic sources were counted once.
因果关系是否已确立？ 是，已确立 RCTs and large cohorts show vaccines prevent infection and death; autism link excluded in very large cohorts.
仍存在的不确定性
Modelled death estimates depend on assumptions; benefit size differs by vaccine.
合理的结论
A general ban on vaccination would remove large, proven protection; Egypt's measles elimination depends on its high coverage.
为什么研究结果看起来互相矛盾？
这是否取决于国家？
- 一般生物学效应
- Immunology universal.
- 饮食习惯
- Not applicable.
- 食品原产地
- Not applicable.
- 污染物
- Not applicable.
- 本国生产条件
- Not applicable.
- 法律规则
- Egypt has compulsory childhood vaccination; Germany's STIKO publishes a standard schedule (Impfkalender 2026).
- 实际监测数据
- WHO/UNICEF coverage and EMR surveillance (I-SRC-105) show high coverage and measles elimination in Egypt.
地区差异有可靠数据支持。
统计复核
- Incidence recalculation and HR CI symmetry – 6517/5,025,754 = 129.7/100,000 (matches); HR 0.93 (0.85-1.02) symmetric on log scale 已重新计算
- Regional incidence change – EMR +5.0% (110.8 -> 116.3/million); Egypt 2.2 -> 0 已重新计算
总体证据的确定性（GRADE，简化版）
- 主要结局
- Prevention of measles (and other vaccine-preventable disease) by vaccination
- 起始等级
- 高（随机试验）
- 升级理由
- large effect (95% effectiveness)
- 结果
- 高
由单名审查者参照 GRADE 方法进行的简化评估；并非正式的 GRADE 专家组评估。GRADE 评价的是针对某一结局的整体证据，而非单项研究。
已核查的临床指南和官方声明
- WHO: Measles fact sheet (2026) · 原始文献
About 95,000 measles deaths in 2024; vaccination averted nearly 59 million deaths 2000-2024; vaccine safe, effective and inexpensive; two doses recommended; unvaccinated young children and pregnant persons at highest risk. - RKI/STIKO: Impfkalender 2026 (STIKO recommendations, Epid Bull 4/2026) (2026) · 原始文献
RKI publishes the 2026 standard vaccination calendar for infants, children, adolescents and adults; detailed timings are in the linked PDF (not read). - CDC: Child and Adolescent Immunization Schedule by Age (addendum updated 2 July 2025) (2025) · 原始文献
Lists routine childhood vaccines including MMR (2 doses), DTaP, polio, Hib, pneumococcal, hepatitis B; page last updated July 2025.
检索策略
本次审查的文献检索记录（检索式采用原数据库语法）。
| 数据库 | 日期 | 检索式 | 检索目标 | 命中数 | 纳入数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PubMed | 2026年10月26日 | safety of vaccines used for routine immunization systematic review adverse events children | 支持性证据 | 26 | |
| Europe PMC | 2026年10月26日 | (vaccin* AND ("serious adverse events" OR harms) AND children AND (systematic review OR meta-analysis)) AND PUB_YEAR:[2014 TO 2026] | 支持性证据 | 5563 | |
| PubMed | 2026年10月26日 | measles mumps rubella vaccination autism nationwide cohort study | 反对性证据 | 2 | |
| Europe PMC | 2026年10月26日 | (Egypt OR Egyptian) AND (measles OR diphtheria OR polio OR pertussis) AND (vaccination coverage OR outbreak OR immunization) | 反对性证据 | 5573 | |
| Europe PMC | 2026年10月26日 | (vaccin*) AND ("Cochrane Database Syst Rev") AND (children) AND (mortality OR efficacy OR effectiveness) AND PUB_YEAR:[2019 TO 2026] | 反对性证据 | 500 | |
| WHO / CDC / RKI websites | 2026年10月26日 | WHO measles fact sheet; CDC child and adolescent immunization schedule; RKI Impfkalender 2026 (web search 'STIKO Impfkalender 2026 Empfehlungen Säuglinge Masern rki.de') | 指南 | 3 |
核查深度如何？
7 项相关研究：2 项核查了全文（其中 1 项进行了结构化偏倚风险评估），5 项基于摘要核查，0 项仅核查了文献信息。 尚未进行由两名独立审查者完成的正式评估，也尚未进行独立的人类专家审核。
最近一次科学审核: 2026年10月26日
通俗解释
Elawady 医生告诉追随者，疫苗接种是被禁止的，包括学校的疫苗接种。疫苗可能有副作用，例如发热，少数情况下会出现热性惊厥。但大型综述显示，麻疹疫苗可预防约 95% 的病例，而且自 1974 年以来，疫苗已挽救了远超 1 亿人的生命。疫苗与自闭症无关。拒绝接种疫苗会使儿童和其他人面临风险。
与该说法相关的研究
支持该说法的研究 (0)
该组中没有研究。
与该说法相矛盾或限制该说法的研究 (6)
-
50 years of vaccination: lives saved
Shattock AJ et al.. Lancet 2024 · PMID 38705159 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00850-X风险评估独立交叉核查全文，含结构化偏倚风险评估★ 关键研究Vaccines against 14 diseases averted an estimated 154 million deaths since 1974 (about 94 million by measles vaccine alone), mostly in young children.
Vaccination averted about 154 million deaths.
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 否 · 方法学质量: 中 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Estimate deaths averted by vaccination
- 研究是如何开展的？
Modelling
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
Global
- 实际发现了什么？
154 million deaths averted
- 观察到的效应有多大？
40% of infant-mortality decline
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Vaccination is one of the main reasons far fewer children die today.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Model-based counterfactual; no formal uncertainty bounds; WHO-funded with WHO-linked authors
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Contradicts 'no vaccinations'.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
Model estimates are not direct observations.
-
Measles-mumps-rubella vaccines work and are safe
Di Pietrantonj C et al.. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2021 · PMID 34806766 · DOI 10.1002/14651858.CD004407.pub5系统综述独立交叉核查已核查摘要★ 关键研究One dose prevents about 95% of measles; serious side effects are rare and no link to autism was found.
MMR is highly effective; rare harms quantified.
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 否 · 方法学质量: 高 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Assess MMR/MMRV
- 研究是如何开展的？
Cochrane review
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
138 studies, 23 million children
- 实际发现了什么？
High effectiveness, rare harms
- 观察到的效应有多大？
measles RR 0.05
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
The measles vaccine prevents almost all cases; rare side effects such as febrile seizures exist.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Observational data; abstract only
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Contradicts 'no vaccinations'.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High
-
Vaccines do not cause autism
Taylor LE, Swerdfeger AL, Eslick GD. Vaccine 2014 · PMID 24814559 · DOI 10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.04.085Meta分析独立交叉核查已核查摘要In over 1.2 million children, vaccination was not linked to autism.
No vaccine-autism link.
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 否 · 方法学质量: 中 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Test vaccine-autism link
- 研究是如何开展的？
Meta-analysis
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
10 studies
- 实际发现了什么？
No association
- 观察到的效应有多大？
OR 0.99
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Fear of autism is not a reason to avoid vaccines.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Observational; abstract only
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Contradicts vaccine rejection based on autism fears.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High
-
Flu vaccines in healthy adults
Demicheli V et al.. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2018 · PMID 29388196 · DOI 10.1002/14651858.CD001269.pub6Meta分析独立交叉核查已核查摘要Vaccination roughly halves confirmed influenza (2.3% to 0.9%); absolute benefit is modest.
Vaccines reduce influenza; no serious harms found.
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 否 · 方法学质量: 高 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Assess influenza vaccines
- 研究是如何开展的？
Cochrane review
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
52 trials, >80,000 adults
- 实际发现了什么？
Fewer influenza cases; small effect on hospitalisation
- 观察到的效应有多大？
RR 0.41
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Flu shots reduce flu but do not abolish it; nothing removes seasonal flu from a country in three weeks.
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Old trials; abstract only
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Contradicts both the 3-week claim and blanket vaccine rejection, while showing modest absolute benefit.
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
Does not address older or high-risk adults.
-
MMR vaccine does not cause autism
Hviid A et al.. Ann Intern Med 2019 · PMID 30831578 · DOI 10.7326/M18-2101队列研究独立交叉核查已核查摘要★ 关键研究Among 657,461 Danish children, vaccinated children did not have more autism than unvaccinated ones.
No autism risk from MMR in 657,461 children.
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 否 · 方法学质量: 高 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Test MMR-autism link
- 研究是如何开展的？
Nationwide cohort
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
657,461 children
- 实际发现了什么？
No increased autism risk
- 观察到的效应有多大？
HR 0.93 (0.85-1.02)
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Fear of autism is not a reason to avoid MMR
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Observational
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Contradicts banning vaccines
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High
-
Measles in the Eastern Mediterranean 2023-2024
Farid M et al.. Vaccines (Basel) 2026 · PMID 42646678 · DOI 10.3390/vaccines14080659生态学研究独立交叉核查已核查全文★ 关键研究Egypt, with about 96% of children vaccinated twice, had no measles in 2024, while low-coverage neighbours had large outbreaks.
Egypt achieved measles elimination with ~96% coverage; outbreaks concentrate among unvaccinated children in the region.
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 否 · 方法学质量: 中 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Track measles elimination in the region
- 研究是如何开展的？
Analysis of WHO surveillance data
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
22 countries
- 实际发现了什么？
Outbreaks where coverage is low; elimination in Egypt
- 观察到的效应有多大？
Egypt 0 cases per million in 2024
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
High vaccination keeps measles away
- 该研究有哪些局限？
Descriptive data; under-reporting
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Contradicts banning vaccines
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
Egypt-specific
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
Causal effect size (not a trial)
该组中没有被标记为关键研究的研究。
结果不一或不明确的研究 (1)
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Safety of routine childhood vaccines
Maglione MA et al.. Pediatrics 2014 · PMID 25086160 · DOI 10.1542/peds.2014-1079系统综述独立交叉核查已核查摘要Some vaccines have rare serious side effects (e.g. febrile seizures after MMR); these are very rare compared with the benefits.
Documents real but very rare serious vaccine harms.
该研究是否支持这一具体说法？ 部分支持 · 方法学质量: 中 · 证据确定性：见该说法的总体评估
研究通俗解读
- 研究人员想了解什么？
Review vaccine side effects
- 研究是如何开展的？
Systematic review
- 研究了多少人、动物或样本？
67 studies
- 实际发现了什么？
Rare serious effects for some vaccines; no autism link
- 观察到的效应有多大？
Not pooled
- 研究结果对日常生活意味着什么？
Side effects exist but are rare
- 该研究有哪些局限？
No pooling
- 它对 Elawady 的具体说法说明了什么？
Supports caution, not a ban
- 研究结果是否适用于德国和欧洲？
High
- 从该研究中明确不能得出什么结论？
Exact absolute risks
该组中没有被标记为关键研究的研究。
地区背景
德国 / 欧盟
Germany's Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO) publishes a standard vaccination calendar for infants, children, adolescents and adults (Impfkalender 2026, rki.de/impfkalender, fetched 2026-10-26).
埃及
Egypt has compulsory childhood vaccinations. WHO regional data show 96-97% first-dose and 95-96% second-dose measles vaccine coverage in Egypt in 2023-2024, measles incidence falling from 2.2 per million to zero, and verified sustained measles and rubella elimination for 2024, while low-coverage countries in the region had large outbreaks, mostly among unvaccinated children (I-SRC-105).
在我的国家适用什么？
一般科学评估
错误 这一说法是错误的：疫苗有罕见的、已知的副作用，但它们预防了大量的疾病和死亡；埃及通过高疫苗接种覆盖率消除了麻疹。
该说法涉及生物学或医学关系。上述科学评估不论在哪个国家都适用；各国食品数据不会改变这一评估。
参考文献
- Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization.. Shattock AJ et al.. Lancet 2024 · PMID 38705159 · DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00850-X
- Vaccines for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella in children.. Di Pietrantonj C et al.. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2021 · PMID 34806766 · DOI 10.1002/14651858.CD004407.pub5
- Vaccines are not associated with autism: an evidence-based meta-analysis of case-control and cohort studies.. Taylor LE, Swerdfeger AL, Eslick GD. Vaccine 2014 · PMID 24814559 · DOI 10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.04.085
- Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy adults.. Demicheli V et al.. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2018 · PMID 29388196 · DOI 10.1002/14651858.CD001269.pub6
- Measles, Mumps, Rubella Vaccination and Autism: A Nationwide Cohort Study.. Hviid A et al.. Ann Intern Med 2019 · PMID 30831578 · DOI 10.7326/M18-2101
- Measles and Rubella Elimination Trends in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, 2023-2024: Progress and Recent Epidemiological Shifts.. Farid M et al.. Vaccines (Basel) 2026 · PMID 42646678 · DOI 10.3390/vaccines14080659
- Safety of vaccines used for routine immunization of U.S. children: a systematic review.. Maglione MA et al.. Pediatrics 2014 · PMID 25086160 · DOI 10.1542/peds.2014-1079